A Covid-19 sub-variant recently detected in New Zealand, Omicron XE, isn't a "gamechanger" and probably won't produce a new wave of infections, a modeller says.
But Te Pūnaha Matatini's Michael Plank said New Zealand still needed to keep an eye out for new variants because Covid-19 would continue to try and evolve to get around the immunity people had developed.
Plank said XE was more of an "incremental change" compared to Omicron. That was because the sub-variant was a hybrid of genetic material from Omicron BA.1 and BA.2, meaning it shared its parents' characteristics.
"[XE is] not a gamechanger in the way that Delta was or Omicron was. So, it might be slightly more transmissible but it's not going to produce a major new wave that we have to deal with."
READ MORE: Omicron XE - What is it, how does it spread and what can NZ do?
Early estimates from British modelling said XE, first detected in the UK in January, might have a growth rate 5-10% higher than the BA.2 Omicron variant, which was already more transmissible than BA.1. Experts noted it was difficult to know for sure because of the lack of data.
There is one known XE case in New Zealand, detected on Saturday.
Associate Minister of Health Ayesha Verrall told RNZ health officials were drafting a plan for how New Zealand could tackle a new Covid-19 variant that was more infectious or severe than Omicron.
Plank also noted that while New Zealand was through the peak of its Omicron outbreak, the rate of community case numbers had not declined dramatically.
Daily case numbers bounced around this week, from 5690 to just shy of 10,000.
The "more concerning" trend was the drift of new infections from younger to older people, Plank said.
"We know older people are at much, much higher risk of getting seriously ill and at risk of death.
"What we're seeing is case numbers have dropped sharply in those younger age groups but they've stayed high or they've dropped much more slowly in those older age groups. I think that's contributing to keeping our hospitalisation numbers high and keeping our deaths high."
He said there was also worry about the coming winter season, which could see "a bit of a bump in cases".
"I don't know if we will see a full-blown second wave at this stage, but we have to be prepared that case numbers are going to stay relatively high through the winter period. Likely to be in the thousands per day throughout that winter period.
"It's possible we'll get a second wave as immunity wanes later on in winter or maybe in spring."
READ MORE: Return of winter viruses will be 'bumpy road for whānau'
Those cases would combine with the re-emergence of flu in New Zealand, which had largely been absent in the past two years with borders closed, he said.
Plank said that would keep "sustained pressure" on the healthcare system in the coming months.
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