Following the deadly Whakaari/White Island eruption in 2019, researchers at the University of Canterbury believe they've found a way to prevent deaths from future volcano eruptions.
Civil and Natural Resources Engineering postdoctoral fellow at the university, Dr Alberto Ardid, used machine learning to identify a seismic frequency pattern that occurred in the days leading up to the eruption which killed 22 people on December 9, 2019.
The Chilean geophysicist studied recordings from GeoNet seismometers, an instrument that measures ground noises and shaking, prior to 18 eruptions across six active volcanoes around the world. The recordings from three New Zealand volcanoes, Ruapehu, Tongariro, and Whakaari, were studied.
"We discovered a change in frequency that tells us an eruption is much more likely to occur over the next few days," Ardid said.
"These frequency transitions allow us to listen in on what's happening at different depths under the volcano. Watching closely for this pattern could provide an early warning of future eruptions."
He believes the discovery is significant because the warning signal from one volcano can, under the right circumstances, be transferred to other volcanoes that don't have long histories of recorded eruptions.
"It’s really exciting that we can potentially contribute to a warning system that could help save lives."
The findings were published in the international journal Nature Communications at 9pm on Wednesday, as the Volcanic Alert Level at Mt Ruapehu remains at Level 2.
READ MORE: Volcanologist outlines chances of Ruapehu eruption
Dr David Dempsey, a senior lecturer in Civil and Natural Resources Engineering at the University of Canterbury, worked closely with Ardid and co-authored the journal article.
He said the work was "motivated by the tragedy on Whakaari, but we think it has wider application because there are several other New Zealand volcanoes that have a similar style of eruption".
"Active volcanoes, including Whakaari, Ruapehu, Tongariro, and others around the world where visitors and skiers are likely to be nearby, are unpredictable and sometimes hazardous. Early warning systems could save lives and avoid debilitating injuries.
"We would like to use this for real-time hazard information, perhaps to let tourists know when it's safer to visit volcanoes."
SHARE ME