Ruapehu data to 'clue' scientists into what is driving tremors

April 7, 2022
Mt Ruapehu.

Data collected by GNS Science over the coming days and weeks will be key to understanding what is driving increased levels of volcanic tremors at Mt Ruapehu.

The volcano is currently experiencing the highest levels of volcanic tremors seen in the past nine years.

It has led to the alert level for the volcano recently being raised from 1 to 2 due to this "elevated volcanic unrest".

Geoff Kilgour, a volcanologist with GNS Science, told Breakfast on Thursday it was "key" for GNS Science to detect what gases are being emitted from Ruapehu and take crater lake measurements.

"We all hope that the volcano just quietens down and goes back to sleep so we can all enjoy a good ski season," he remarked.

Kilgour explained there had been increased number of small earthquakes, or tremors, occurring in the last three weeks. This increase had also seen temperatures in Ruapehu's crater lake rise.

READ MORE: Among highest level of Mt Ruapehu volcanic tremors in 9 years - GNS

The increase in tremors were "even further than what we normally see", Kilgour said.

"Over the last day or so, we've seen that tremor increase to such a degree that it's basically the highest it's been over the last nine years on that earthquake recorder."

GeoNet data also reflects this.

Kilgour said the cycles of temperature increase and decrease had been "a little bit unusual" of late, stating: "So there is some more concern and that's why we’ve raised the alert level to 2.

Geoff Kilgour, a volcanologist with GNS Science, says data on gases being emitted and crater lake measurements will be key to understanding what is going on. (Source: 1News)

"That's really an indication that this is more than just minor unrest. This is into moderate to heightened unrest and that's really the key about this volcanic alert level that we've set."

Kilgour said GNS Science will soon be doing some "gas sniffing flights". He explained scientists will fly around the volcano to detect what gases are being emitted from it.

Scientists will also try and take samples of the crater lake water, he said, to try and determine if the tremors and the rise in the crater lake temperature is being driven by magma - molten rock pushing up from below - or "something a bit more shallow to do with the hydrothermal system".

"That will really clue us in to really what's driving this increased tremor."

READ MORE: 'Watch this space' for signs of Ruapehu eruption - geologist

Mt Ruapehu hasn't erupted since 2007, when ash, mud and rocks were blasted skyward. No one died, although two climbers were caught in the eruption in a hut just 600m from the crater lake, with one having to be rescued after becoming trapped.

The last major eruptions occurred in 1995 and 1996. The first of those in June 1995 was preceded by the crater lake heating to 50C in January of the same year.

Asked what the likelihood of an eruption is, Kilgour replied: "So volcanoes tend to go through these periods of unrest and then back down to nothing. And that's far more likely than it goes into an eruption. Eruptions are really quite rare in the history of a volcano.

"So most of the time they're sitting at either a background state and then they go into these unrest periods, but then they go back down again.

"So it's far more likely that this will diminish over time, but the information we'll collect over the next few days and weeks will give us an indication of whether or not we're moving towards an eruption or that we're moving back down again towards a state of normal activity at the volcano."

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