If Omicron remains the most dominant Covid-19 variant for a "sustained period", the pandemic could transition to an endemic, epidemiologist Michael Baker says.
An endemic disease is one which is always in the community, but is considered to be more stable, predictable and manageable.
That's not the case for Covid-19 yet, but the World Health Organization continues to consider it.
"The key features [of endemics] are that the threat is constantly present," Baker said.
It does not mean the illness is less severe, however.
HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria are all examples of diseases that are endemic in many countries, yet they remain the biggest infectious disease killers in the world.
The flu is another example of an endemic illness.
It never disappears and varies in intensity over time, with infections more common in winter.
Baker suggests Covid-19 now presents more like the flu, but there are key differences.
"One is it's so much more infectious than influenza that causes the flu - it doesn't need the boost from winter," he said.
"Covid-19 has a higher fatality risk, though with Omicron this has now dropped to a similar level to influenza for vaccinated people."
He says Covid-19 seems to produce long-term effects more often than influenza does, and that immunity to it declines more rapidly.
"The big unknown factor is virus evolution," he said.
That could still push Omicron out as the most dominant strain and result in further pandemic waves.
Some Aucklanders 1News spoke to already consider Covid-19 to be no different to the flu, while still being wary of its impact on vulnerable Kiwis.
"If I hear about someone catching the flu or catching Omicron, it sort of feels like Omicron will be less to deal with," one person said.
"A lot of people were a lot more scared at the beginning," another said, "but as long as we have immunocompromised and elderly people... we won't go back to what it was before Covid."
Baker says we don't want to have another influenza, which sees around 3000 New Zealanders hospitalised with the illness every year and is responsible for 2% of deaths in the country.
Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield told 1News, when asked what Covid-19 may look like should it become endemic, that we are not there yet, noting that there is "still a global pandemic".
"The WHO expert advisory group meets, I understand, again on the 11th of April and will reconsider this question but there's nothing to suggest we are anything near the end of this pandemic; we're not in an endemic situation," he said.
"Even if we were, endemic Covid is different from endemic flu."
It's unclear what role vaccines will play when endemic status is reached, vaccinologist Helen Petousis-Harris said.
"It's really depending how much trouble it causes. It could be endemic and not cause much bother, or perhaps it could flare up from time to time," she said.
"If it's as bothersome, or more bothersome, than flu, we might want to be using vaccines, particularly in special groups."
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