A volcanic expert says it remains to be seen whether increased volcanic activity at Mt Ruapehu will lead to an eruption.
The alert level at the volcano was raised from 1 to 2 on Monday following what GeoNet has described as “elevated volcanic unrest.”
This mainly relates to hazards including steam discharge, volcanic gas, earthquakes, landslides and hydrothermal activity.
GeoNet says volcanic eruptions can sometimes happen at Level 2 with no warning.
The 2019 eruption of Whakaari/White Island is an example of this. Twenty-two people died at the popular tourist destination, either from the explosion or from their injuries.
The next stage, Level 3 in the alert system, means there is a minor volcanic event.
GeoNet warns volcanic eruptions can sometimes happen with no warning, regardless of alert level.
However, Professor Phil Shane, an Auckland University geologist, says the recent increase in volcanic activity at Ruapehu isn’t necessarily cause for concern.
That includes an increase in the temperature at the lake at the top of the volcano and in the small earthquakes, or tremors, beneath it.
“It’s not definite evidence that that will happen but it’s the sort of thing we look for so that we can be prepared for these types of eruption events in the future,” says Professor Shane.
“Any change in the alert level is significant but we do need to remember that some of the activity at Ruapehu is cyclic.”
He compares the increased seismic activity to the volcano “clearing its throat” and says it’s a case of waiting to see if that continues.
“If the temperatures get hotter and if we get more and more volcanic tremors, or if they become shallower, those could be indicators that an eruption is on the way, maybe within weeks.”
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