New Zealand could potentially bypass a second Omicron peak amid the proliferation of the BA.2 Covid-19 sub-variant, Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield says.
The Ministry of Health on Tuesday reported 21,616 new Covid-19 community cases and two Covid-related deaths. There are also 960 people in hospital with the virus, including 22 in an intensive care or high dependency unit.
Modelling by Te Pūnaha Matatini, before the current outbreak, saw a high transmission scenario of around 11,000 cases per day in the northern region during the second week of March - 50 times higher than Delta's peak.
Bloomfield said while the daily case numbers are higher than expected, it can be attributed to the widespread use and reporting of rapid antigen tests (RATs) and the higher proportion of the BA.2 sub-variant.
The sub-variant, which is 30% more transmissible than the BA.1 variant of Omicron, made up between 75 and 80% of Covid-19 cases recorded in February, he said.
“What you can see is after that peak, quite clearly in Auckland, the number of cases is now on the way down."
Bloomfield said the spread of the BA.2 sub-variant "may well help us - act in our favour, in fact - if the majority of cases here through our outbreak are BA.2".
Looking at the situation overseas, around 85% of the current cases in New South Wales and the UK are the BA.2 variant.
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“You can see that even those jurisdictions that have that had quite big Omicron outbreaks are getting a second one. It seems to be associated with the BA.2 sub-variant," he said.
“There’s a possibility we will miss that second big peak again that other countries are seeing,” Bloomfield said.
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