It doesn’t appear the beginning of autumn will spell relief from hot summer temperatures.
NIWA has released its seasonal climate outlook for March to May and it says periods of warm, summer-like temperatures are likely this month.
It seems the marine heatwave from earlier this year may be responsible, with NIWA saying it will delay the transition to cooler temperatures.
Around the country, sea surface temperatures ranged from 1C to 1.6C above average during February.
In January, sea surface temperatures ranged from 0.9C to 1.9C above average.
It means temperatures are very likely to be above average in all regions except for the east and north of the South Island, where they will be above or near average.
NIWA said there will also be spells of higher than normal pressure, with drier than normal conditions favoured in the North Island in particular.
Unfortunately the marine heatwave means the odds for stormy weather are increased, with NIWA saying late March and early April may feature a period of unsettled weather.
Looking at the regions, NIWA said temperatures are very likely to be above average – 70 per cent chance – for Northland, Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty.
Marine heatwave conditions will likely contribute to elevated humidity and warm temperatures during March and delay the seasonal transition to cooler temperatures during April to May, NIWA said.
The same goes for Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatū and Wellington.
For Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa, temperatures are most likely to be above average – 55 per cent chance.
Warmer than average coastal sea surface temperatures are the likely contributor.
For Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough and Buller, temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (50 per cent chance) or near average (45 per cent chance).
Warmer than average coastal sea surface temperatures will likely delay the seasonal transition to cooler temperatures, although a cold snap is possible during the first half of April.
For the West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago and Southland, temperatures are very likely to be above average (65 per chant chance).
Marine heatwave conditions are the likely contributor, although a cold snap is also possible for these places during the first half of April.
For Coastal Canterbury and east Otago, temperatures are about equally likely to be above average (50 per cent chance) or near average (45 per cent chance).
A cold snap during the first half of April is also possible for them.
NIWA concluded La Niña was still expected to transition to ENSO neutral conditions, but it would come with a bit more climate variability.
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