The human and economic cost of Russia's invasion of Ukraine will likely be "catastrophic", says one expert, so what is President Vladimir Putin's endgame?
Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine shortly before 6am on Thursday (local time, Thursday afternoon NZT).
In a televised address, he claimed the operation was intended to protect civilians. But it's reported at least 57 Ukrainians have been killed as a result of the invasion so far, and 169 more wounded.
"I think this is a catastrophic war, there is the potential for high loss of life on both sides," University of Otago specialist in international affairs Professor Robert Patman told Breakfast.
He said Russia definitely had the "military edge" to dominate the early stages of the conflict, and could even take over the entire country.
Explainer: Historical background leading up to Ukraine invasion
But there is a "real determination" from Ukraine to resist Russia's advances.
"Also I think Ukraine is encouraged by the fact that much of Eastern Europe is behind it, much of Eastern Europe supports Ukraine and has considerable hostility towards Russia," said Patman.
"So the cost in human terms are going to be catastrophic, probably, and also economically both countries are going to suffer a lot."
Russia's endgame
Patman said Russia was using force to start with in order to remove Ukraine's government from power, a government it believes is "anti-Russian".
"I think the endgame ostensibly is for Russia to remove the government, what they see as the pro-Western government of Mr Zelenskyy, and establish a pro-Russian Government."
Patman didn’t believe there would be a long-term Russian occupation, but instead he thinks Russia is trying to establish a "buffer state".
It is also likely that Putin is trying to create a "greater Russia" for political gain in his own country, Patman said.
"I think Mr Putin's also mindful of pressures at home and there may be a domestic political angle here that with pressure on the Russian economy. If Mr Putin can secure what might be seen as a nationalist win, a move towards establishing a greater Russia and extending Russia's influence beyond its borders, then that may be seen as bolstering Putin's authoritarian regime at home."
New Zealand has condemned the military operation.
SHARE ME