Ukraine's leaders sought to reassure the nation that an invasion from neighbouring Russia was not imminent, even as they acknowledged the threat is real and received a shipment of US military equipment to shore up their defences on Wednesday.
Moscow has denied it is planning an assault, but it has massed an estimated 100,000 troops near Ukraine in recent weeks and is holding military drills at multiple locations in Russia. That has led the United States and its NATO allies to rush to prepare for a possible war.
Several rounds of high stakes diplomacy have failed to yield any breakthroughs, and tensions escalated further this week. NATO said it was bolstering its deterrence in the Baltic Sea region, and the US ordered 8500 troops on higher alert for potential deployment to Europe as part of an alliance "response force" if necessary. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also said he is prepared to send troops to protect NATO allies in Europe.
The US and its allies have vowed to hit Russia with sanctions like never before if Moscow sends its military into Ukraine, but they have provided few details, saying it’s best to keep President Vladimir Putin guessing.
The US State Department has ordered the families of all American personnel at the US Embassy in Kyiv to leave the country, and it said that nonessential embassy staff could leave. Britain said it, too, was withdrawing some diplomats and dependants from its embassy, and families of Canadian diplomatic staff also have been told to leave.
In Ukraine, however, authorities have sought to project calm in order not to destabilise the situation and avoid panic — and many citizens have expressed scepticism that there will be an invasion soon.
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In parliament, Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that "as of today, there are no grounds to believe" that Russia is preparing to invade imminently, noting that its troops have not formed what he called a battle group that could force its way through the border.
"Don't worry, sleep well," he said. "No need to have your bags packed."
Reznikov's remarks follow multiple reassurances from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other officials. On Monday (local time), Zelenskyy told the nation that the situation was "under control".
In an interview aired on Tuesday, however, the defence minister acknowledged that "there are risky scenarios" that "are possible and probable in the future".
Russia has said Western accusations it is planning an attack are merely a cover for NATO’s own planned provocations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday once again accused the US of "fomenting tensions" around Ukraine, a former Soviet state that has been locked in a conflict with Russia for almost eight years.
In 2014, following the ouster of a Kremlin-friendly president in Kyiv, Moscow annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and threw its weight behind a separatist insurgency in the country's industrial heartland in the east. The fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels has killed over 14,000 people, and efforts to reach a peaceful settlement have stalled.
In the latest standoff, Russia wants guarantees from the West that NATO will never admit Ukraine as a member and that the alliance would curtail other actions, such as stationing troops in former Soviet bloc countries. Some of these, like the membership pledge, are nonstarters for NATO, creating a seemingly intractable stalemate that many fear can only end in a war.
Moscow has accused Ukraine of massing troops near rebel-controlled regions in the east, aiming to retake them by force — accusations Kyiv has rejected.
Putting US-based troops on heightened alert for Europe on Monday suggested diminishing hope in the West that Putin will back away from what US President Joe Biden himself has said looks like a threat to invade Ukraine.
As part of a new US$200 million in security assistance directed to Ukraine from the United States, a shipment including equipment and munitions arrived on Tuesday in Ukraine, according to Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar.
The US moves are being done in tandem with actions by other NATO members to bolster a defensive presence in Eastern Europe. Denmark is sending a frigate and F-16 warplanes to Lithuania; Spain is sending four fighter jets to Bulgaria and three ships to the Black Sea to join NATO naval forces, and France stands ready to send troops to Romania.
Biden’s national security team has been working with several European nations, the European Commission, and suppliers around the globe to develop contingency plans if Russia were to cut off energy supplies, according to two senior administration officials who briefed reporters about efforts to mitigate spillover effects from a potential military action. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the deliberations.
If needed, Europe would look to natural gas supplies in North Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the United States. The effort would require "rather smaller volumes from a multitude of sources" to make up for a Russian cutoff, according to one official.
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