New Zealanders are in a race against the Covid-19 Delta variant if they want any chance of preventing an overload of the health system, Covid-19 modeller Professor Michael Plank says.
On Thursday, the country saw a spike in daily Delta infections to 71.
Modelling by Plank suggests these cases may continue to trend upwards with a doubling in cases every 12 days. It indicates that there may be upwards of 160 daily Covid-19 infections by November.
Plank says this indicates how vital boosting Covid-19 vaccination rates are in the country's battle against the virus as New Zealand shifts away from its elimination approach.
While "unsettling", he says there will likely be more hospitalisations in the short term, but it's hoped that increasing vaccination rates will trigger a decline in daily Covid-19 cases further down the track.
"I think we have to get used to seeing more and more cases than we're used to.
"It is unsettling, but as we move into a different stage of the pandemic, the good news is we have the vaccine. So over time, we'll hopefully start to see fewer hospitalisations."
As cases trend upwards, Plank says higher vaccination rates throughout New Zealand are vital in turning things around but needs to be done quickly.
"We're in a race against the virus; there's no doubt about that. Things are moving in the right direction in terms of vaccination rates, but it really can't go quick enough.
"Delta has proven incredibly difficult to stamp out, and it's going to be with us for the foreseeable future."
Better ventilation in buildings such as schools, improved access to testing, especially rapid testing, and wider use of face coverings will all help protect New Zealanders, Plank says.
He adds that ensuring people right around the country, with a focus on Māori and Pasifika, get vaccinated is important to prevent "devastating" flow-on effects.
The Ministry of Health confirmed to 1News that 37 of Thursday's 71 cases were Māori.
"The more people we can get vaccinated, it will start to turn the tide," Planks says.
"If it finds communities with low vaccination rates, it can have a devastating effect there."
Other health experts called for a shift to Alert Level 4 for Auckland and Northland to prevent the virus from spreading throughout vulnerable populations.
Dr Marie Harwood and Dr Collin Tukuitonga met with Government officials on Thursday along with dozens of independent advisers to discuss New Zealand's pandemic response.
They told officials a bump up in alert levels was necessary due to the high case numbers across Auckland, the number of unlinked cases and current vaccination rates.
However, Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins ruled out a return to Level 4 in Wednesday's press conference, which fellow Covid-19 modeller Shaun Hendy said was the wrong move.
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