David Seymour overtakes Judith Collins in preferred PM rankings - 1News Colmar Brunton Poll

Source: 1News

ACT and its leader David Seymour continue to surge in popularity in the latest 1News Colmar Brunton Poll, leaving Judith Collins in his dust and at her lowest preferred PM result as Opposition leader.

The September 2021 1News Colmar Brunton Poll results.

In party support, the major political parties are down slightly, while ACT has moved up to 14% support.

The September 2021 1News Colmar Brunton Poll results - party support.

National's Judith Collins' preferred PM ranking has sunk to her lowest ever since becoming National leader – dropping by 4%, now sitting on just 5%.

She last received below 5% in the June 2020 poll prior to becoming leader where she got 2%, before climbing to 20% immediately after taking the position from Todd Muller.

Simon Bridges was at 5% when he was rolled by Todd Muller.

"It's two-years out (from the next election)," Collins said. "I think people really want some answers and solutions when it comes to the current lockdown situation – they're looking forward to those solutions coming from the National Party."

"The party's had four leaders in a very short period of time and that's clearly not the solution. We need to keep focused on the things that matter."

Meanwhile – Seymour has overtaken the Opposition leader and jumped up ahead to his highest ever ranking at 11%.

On his result, Seymour said it was "very encouraging".

"Obviously we're really thrilled people are getting behind ACT, but it just shows we have to work harder to deliver for them – so it's a bit of a chicken and egg thing."

Still significantly ahead, Jacinda Ardern took a dip down by 4% as preferred PM to 44%.

Ardern said that the numbers showed that “despite a really tough couple of months, that there is still really strong support for the plan that we have”.

Preferred PM:

Jacinda Ardern: 44% (down 4%-points)
David Seymour: 11% (up 5%)
Judith Collins: 5% (down 4%)
Christopher Luxon: 3%
Simon Bridges: 2%

Don’t know: 21% (up 2%)
Refused: 3% (up 2%)

Both the major parties took a 3% drop in support – Labour down to 43% and National to 26%. It is Labour's worst result since before Covid hit in early 2020.

Ardern said Labour's result still indicated "strong support to the plan we have as a Government, to get us through this particular outbreak, but also to take us into the future".

"This has been a really tough couple of months for New Zealanders, yet to still hold that level of confidence in the plan we have, in a world where no country has escaped from the cost of Covid – I consider that to be an endorsement of what we're doing."

Over the weekend, former PM Sir John Key came out with a 'five-point' proposal to raise vaccination rates in the Covid response.

On her view of Sir John's proposal, Ardern said it was "for the National Party members past and present to discuss their own approach to Covid".

"For us, I'll just fall back on our record, the lowest case numbers, death rates, hospitalisations, lowest unemployment and a return to an economy of pre-Covid levels. Relative to the rest of the OECD, New Zealand has done extraordinarily well." 

Collins said National's result was "a little bit above what we were in the election, it also tells us we've got a long way to go and we're two years out from an election".

"So just have to keep focused on things that matter." 

ACT, on the other hand, took a sizeable jump up by 5% to 14% support. In comparison to this time last year prior to the election, ACT was on 7%.

Leader David Seymour put his party's rise down to "good honest politics".

"We go out, we listen, we propose better ideas to take our country forward."

The September 2021 1News Colmar Brunton Poll - Parliamentary seat entitlement based on poll results.

Party support:

Labour Party: 43% (down 3%-points)
National Party: 26% (down 3%)
ACT: 14% (up 5%)
Green Party: 8%
New Zealand First: 3% (up 2%)
Te Paati Māori/Māori Party: 2%
New Conservative: 1%
TOP: 1% (down 1%)

Don’t know: 6%
Refused: 3%
*Percentages do not add to 100 due to rounding.

Labour's latest numbers would mean it would not be able to govern alone, needing the support of the Green Party.  

Parliamentary seats entitlement based on poll results:

Labour Party: 55
National Party: 34
ACT Party: 18
Green Party: 10
Māori Party: 3
The Parliament seat entitlement method assumes Rawiri Waititi holds the seat of Waiariki.

In early July 2017, then-Opposition leader Andrew Little received 5% as preferred PM, while Jacinda Ardern received 6% and Winston Peters received 11%. A late July poll saw Little and Ardern both at 6% and Peters on 10%, before Ardern took over as Labour leader. 

Five per cent was Little's lowest score as preferred PM while he was Opposition leader.

Between September 22-26, 2021, 1001 eligible voters were polled by mobile phone (501) and online (500). The maximum sampling error is approximately ±3.1%-points at the 95% confidence level. For party support, percentages have been rounded up or down to whole numbers. The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region and ethnic identification. The sample for mobile phones is selected by random dialling using probability sampling, and the online sample is collected using an online panel.