Modelling shows that with 70 per cent of all New Zealanders vaccinated, the number of hospitalisations at any given time would peak at about 3500 and about 1700 people would die from Covid-19 over a two year period.
The projection was based on the borders being open and no public health restrictions being in place.
The lead researcher, epidemiologist Professor Colin Simpson said the modelling factored in the more infectious Delta variant and was based on there being 10 imported cases a day.
The work has been led by scientists at Victoria University of Wellington and ESR. It was recently published in the Lancet medical journal for the Western Pacific region.
With 70 per cent vaccine coverage it found there would be about 1.5 million cases in the community over two years.
"It's pretty stark that we do need good uptake," said Professor Simpson.
"It's our exit really for New Zealanders," he said.
The modelling showed with 90 per cent of the general population vaccinated, the results are a lot more positive.
Under this scenario, there would be more than 80,000 community cases over two years, with hospitalisations peaking at 34 and 145 deaths.
David Welch from Auckland University also worked on the study.
He explained the dramatic drop in peak hospitalisations with 90 per cent vaccine coverage was because it’s “very close to herd immunity".
He said at that point the virus is “endemic” so we would be living with it.
A Kiwi epidemiologist in Melbourne, Professor Tony Blakely, said the modelling is useful to a degree.
"It's useful for giving you a sense of how flammable the bush is, it’s like that bushfire metaphor.
"But there’s no way - no way - that Jacinda and Ashley are going to sit back and do nothing. They'll act and suppress," said Blakely.
The Government yesterday reaffirmed its elimination strategy for now.
"It’s too soon to throw in the towel…you know we’ve come this far, it would be an absolute waste for us to give up on this now. We still want to drive this particular outbreak of Covid-19 out of our community," said Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins on Wednesday.
Australia plans to vaccinate 70 per cent of all adults before it starts reopening. A target Professor Blakely said is out of date.
"That's now history already, and we should be looking at 80 per cent plus of adults because we're learning - even in the past four weeks - how much more infectious this virus is," he said.
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