Asian population expected to have 'largest population rise' in NZ by 2043, Stats NZ say

The Asian population is projected to grow exponentially in the next few years, according to the latest data from Statistics New Zealand.

“The Asian population is projected to grow faster than the Māori population and surpass it in the early 2020s,” population estimates and projections manager Hamish Slack said in a statement today. 

While all other ethnic groups are projected to increase their population share, the broad Asian ethnic group will have the largest rise, increasing from 16 per cent of the population in 2018 to 26 per cent (about 1 in 4 residents) by 2043.

However the European ethnic group is projected to have the slowest growth.

"Different growth rates between ethnic groups reflect different rates of birth, death, and migration,” Slack said.

In the median projection, the "European or Other" ethnic group will reduce its population share from 70 per cent in 2018 to 64 percent in 2043.

Asian and Māori ethnic group populations are both projected to surpass 1 million, in 2024–2027 and 2028-2032, respectively.

Stats New Zealand says the Māori population growth is driven by above average birth rates combined with a young age structure, while the Asian population growth is driven by migration.

The individual ethnic groups within the broad Asian population group, such as Chinese and Indian, are projected to remain significantly smaller than the Māori population group.

The Pacific population is projected to surpass 0.5 million people in 2026–2031 followed by the Indian subgroup of the Asian population after the mid-2030s.

“National ethnic population projections give an indication of the size and age structure of future populations by ethnic group usually living in New Zealand,” Slack said.

“They indicate possible outcomes based on different combinations of fertility, mortality, migration, and inter-ethnic mobility assumptions.

“The projections consider current policy settings, Covid-19 impacts, and historical population trends. They do not try to anticipate future major policy changes which may affect population change.”