Q+A poll sees NZ First’s Shane Jones in third place for crucial Northland seat

Source: 1News

A devastating poll for NZ First sees Shane Jones running a distant third in the Northland electorate.

And when it comes to the party vote, the traditionally blue electorate looks to be turning red.

The Q+A Colmar Brunton Poll in Northland showed incumbent Matt King of National far ahead in the race for the seat, with almost half of those polled supporting him.

Labour’s Willow-Jean Prime meanwhile came in second - with more than double the support of Mr Jones.

Those polled in Northland were asked, who would you vote for with your electorate vote?

According to the Q+A Colmar Brunton Poll results, Matt King had 46% support, Willow-Jean Prime was on 31% and Shane Jones on just 15%.

Northland electorate vote support

Matt King (National) – 46%
Willow Jean Prime (Labour) – 31%
Shane Jones (NZ First) – 15%
Darlene Tana Hoff-Nielson (Green Party) – 3%
Melanie Taylor (New Conservative) – 2%
Mark Cameron (ACT) – 1%

Eleven per cent did not know or refused to answer.

It is a surge both for Mr King who gained 38% at the last election and for Ms Prime, who received 21.4% of the electorate vote. 

The Northland seat has had a recent volatile voting history, after NZ First leader Winston Peters nabbed the electorate in a 2015 by-election, to then be ousted in 2017 by National’s Matt King who won by 1,389 votes more.

Mr Jones told TVNZ1's Q+A he needed to get the "political jackhammer" out, with his message to Northlanders that if they wanted to get NZ First back into Parliament they should vote for him or the party. 

Mr King said he was "heartened" by the poll result but was "taking nothing for granted". 

"You're a fool if you rest on your laurels."

Ms Prime said it was "really pleased to see that there is a huge level of support there, not only for myself but also for the Labour Party". 

"I know there's a lot of work to do."

When asked if she expected to have polled ahead of Mr Jones, Ms Prime said she "didn't expect anything in terms of how Northland is feeling ahead of this election". 

And in terms of party support in Northland

Labour Party 41%
National Party 38%
ACT party 8%
NZ First 7%
Green Party 4.7%
New Conservative 1.9%

The seat was touted as a must-win for NZ First with the July, 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll placing the party at 2%. 

At the 2017 election National got 46.2% of the vote in Northland compared to Labour’s 30%.

Labour only got 17.6% support in Northland at the 2011 election and 16.6% in 2014.

This new poll suggests Labour Party’s popularity in Northland is on the rise – its 41% ahead of National’s 38%.

ACT sits on 8%, with NZ First on 7% and Green Party on 4.7%.

Eleven per cent did not know or refused to answer.

Mr King said there was "a bit of a wave of support behind Labour at the moment and that's reflected in the poll result". 

Ms Prime said it was the first time in recent history Labour was ahead of National in the polls. 

Watch TVNZ1's Q+A here. 

Between July 29 to August 4, 2020, 503 eligible Northland electorate voters on the general roll were polled by landline (402) or from Colmar Brunton’s online panel (101). The purpose of including the online sample was to target demographic groups who are less likely to have access to a landline.

The maximum sampling error is approximately
±4.3%-points at the 95% confidence level. Results higher and lower than 50% have a smaller sampling error . The data has been weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, ethnic identification in Northland.