New Zealand is now part of a small group of countries to have eliminated Covid-19 however it could have gone terribly wrong, according to one of the key experts who advised the Government.
Epidemiologist and public health expert Professor Michael Baker says just over 100 days on from New Zealand's first Covid-19 case, he's "really delighted" with where the country is at now.
Yesterday marked not just 17 days without any new cases, but also the day our last active case recovered.
"It's a remarkable achievement to be here now in a country that's basically free of this virus," Prof Baker told TVNZ1's Breakfast this morning.
Prof Baker is one of the key members of the Health Ministry's Covid-19 technical advisory group, with his modelling and counselling proving invaluable over the last few months.
He says with the current modelling, there's a "very low probability" of another sustained Covid-19 outbreak.
While other countries like the UK and US are still battling the virus, and more than 7 million people infected and 400,000 dead worldwide, Prof Baker says New Zealand looked to Asia for how to contain the virus effectively.
"Listening to the health authorities we normally go to in Western world gave us the wrong idea. They hugely underestimated this threat," he says.
"Even though the virus had been very tough in Asia, there was almost this feeling in the Western world that it wouldn't affect high-income countries the same way. I think it was a terrible error of judgement."
To deal with any future outbreaks, including other diseases, Prof Baker is calling for New Zealand to rebuild its public health infrastructure.
Part of that could be creating a dedicated, centralised national public health agency.
He points to the challenges that arose from the campylobacter outbreak in Havelock North, as well as the Covid-19 pandemic.
"Preparation is everything. You need that infrastructure," he says.
"There are some great models internationally we can draw on. We don't have to go back and reinvent the wheel."
Professor Michael Baker says New Zealanders should get used to the idea masks are needed in some circumstances. (Source: Other)
Such an agency is "long overdue", Prof Baker says.
"An agency that has these core ideas of protection, prevention, preparedness, as its raison d'etre (purpose).
"It concentrates on having a coordinated system across the whole country. It works on those fundamentals that takes years to build up - infrastructure, information systems, protocols, a trained workforce - really dedicated to this job of keeping New Zealand safe."
New Zealand has 1504 confirmed and probable cases of Covid-19, of which 22 people have died.
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