There is still a risk of community spread of Covid-19 in New Zealand, a virus modelling expert is warning.
Professor Shaun Hendy, the director of Auckland University's Te Punaha Matatini Centre of Research Excellence in Complex Systems and Data Analytics, urged Kiwis not to be complacent as the Government looks to move New Zealand to Alert Level 1.
Yesterday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern outlined the rules of what life at Level 1 would look like , with gathering restrictions removed but strict border controls to remain.
Yesterday there were no new cases of the virus for the 12th day , and just one active case remaining in New Zealand.
Over the pandemic, New Zealand has had 1154 confirmed and 350 probable cases of Covid-19. The national death toll is at 22.
It has also been more than 30 days since community transmission in New Zealand has been detected.
Professor Hendy told TVNZ1's Breakfast this morning he's about 95 per cent sure community transmission in New Zealand is gone.
But he also cited examples from overseas where second waves of the illness had gotten out of control.
"Lockdown was very hard economically and socially, we want to avoid that, but maybe we need to accept that maybe we do have to go back to Level 2 sometime this year if we have an imported case that cropped up."
The PM has outlined what life will look like when we move into Level 1. (Source: Other)
He said there are still people arriving from overseas in New Zealand each day, and although they are quarantined for 14 days, there are still chances of spread if they had the virus.
"There's still about 200 people a day arriving internationally - they're mostly Kiwis coming back from overseas, a few international people coming in for work - and if you look at the prevalence of the disease overseas probably we're getting one infected person arrive a week, that's the sort of back of the envelope number, and so that's why we've got people in quarantine at the moment.
"But when you're in quarantine there's still a chance that it could get passed on to a member of the hotel staff where you're working even if precautions are being taken, so there's still that very small risk at the border and I guess what we'd say now is the risk in the community is about the same as our risk at the border now."
Professor Hendy said New Zealand may have "cleared victory in round one" and that it was important to get the economy moving again, but it's not time for complacency.
"It's about managing the risks of a secondary outbreak and we've seen lots of countries where that's happened, you know, we're seeing just that small number of cases bubble along in Australia, in Hong Kong they went two weeks without a case before having another community transmission case appear.
"So it's about being sure, it's about banking the wins that we've already got and then we can hopefully got to Level 1 and stay in Level 1 for a long period of time."
The National Party leader told Breakfast the restrictions need to be loosened. (Source: Other)
When asked his thoughts on Alert Level 1 though, Mr Hendy described risks at large "super spreading events", including weddings, nightclubs and what was seen at a St Patrick's Day event in Matamata where the virus was easily passed on in an atmosphere where people were in close contact.
At the moment, gatherings are limited to 100 people but that restriction will ease under Level 1.
"We've just all got to be cautious about those large gatherings," Mr Hendy warned.
"I know people would like to get back to that and there's certainly people who may have put their weddings on hold for example, you know, things like that that are really important to people to bring their families together and friends together, but we've got to be cautious."
Professor Hendy said keeping contact tracing registers remains important should there be a second Covid-19 outbreak.
"The risks are not zero."
There remains one active case in the country, says Dr Ashley Bloomfield. (Source: Other)
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