Most experts think exit from Level 3 should be several weeks away, Sir Peter Gluckman says

A "new vulnerable" group of New Zealanders is set to emerge from the Covid-19 crisis, MPs were told today.

Former Chief Science Advisor Sir Peter Gluckman told the epidemic response committee there would be long lasting effects due to the high number people who had lost jobs or businesses and had become subsidy-dependent for the first time.

And he said the country's exit from Level 3, in the view of many experts, should be some time away.

He said there was no clarity over when the country can leave the current alert level.

"Most experts think it should be several weeks away, yet messaging suggested it might be earlier and many businesses are acting on that basis.

"Misinterpretation and over-promising can lead to frustration and anger."

The committee heard that the Covid-19 crisis could lead to a doubling in the number of Kiwis who live in a state of food uncertainty alongside skyrocketing mental health statistics. 

Sir Peter spoke of many feeling stigmatised, angry and fearful, however "some of these effects may not be apparent for some time".

Of those directly affected by the severe stresses of the pandemic, Sir Peter said more than 10 per cent may experience long-lasting depression "and even suicidality".

"As we saw in Christchurch, it can take years for the for the magnitude of the chronic effects to be seen.

"Many people already were very vulnerable in society and the situation has made them more vulnerable, but at the same time they know how to work in the system," he said.

Sir Peter then spoke of the "new vulnerable", a group of New Zealanders who were heavily reliant on an industry career pre-Covid-19, such as tourism or aviation, for it to then diminish.

He used the the examples of middle aged tourism workers and pilots who may have worked in the same career path their whole lives.

He said some would "suppress their feelings and we will think they are alright", before possible mental health issues emerge in the future.

"We've seen the rise of family violence, the rise of drug abuse. Marijuana - I'm told by Dr Ian Lambie (the justice science advisor) - is now the major way of people handling stress in South Auckland."

Sir Peter also spoke of medical issues such as heart disease and stroke, saying the stress of loss of agency and unemployment created a greater risk of such illnesses.

The select committee heard from Auckland City Mission CEO Chris Farrelly, who said that before Covid-19, 10 per cent of New Zealand was living in "food insecurity" - a term for people who did not have reliable access to nutritious food.

"In this Covid environment that's grown significantly and probably to 20 per cent," Mr Farrelly said.

"So many of our families live week to week or day to day and not been able to manage it. Now there’s this new group of vulnerable moved into that space, literally in the same situation as that 10 per cent."

"There will be without a doubt a new wave of immense poverty in this country in many areas."

Mr Farrelly said the mission was getting constant requests for food bags from people who "in their life never ever had to put their hand out".

"Fortunately we can do this, the question is what we do in the months ahead."

Sir Peter said society needed a "rethink" - "one that could lead to young people being better prepared for a future dominated by change".

Sir Peter said the solutions were in early interventions at a local level.