New Zealand has a good chance of "stamping out" Covid-19 under the current lockdown plans according to Professor Michael Baker, an epidemiologist from the University of Otago.
The Government announced yesterday that New Zealand will move from Level 4 to Level 3 close to midnight next Monday, and Level 3 will last at least two weeks.
Professor Baker, speaking this morning to TVNZ 1's Breakfast, said there's a high probability New Zealand has done what is necessary to prevent further Level 4 lockdowns.
"This is a great compromise," he said.
"The modeling work says it would be good to stay in lockdown a couple more weeks just to improve our chance of wiping out the virus - but we have got to get people back in work.
"There's a lot of people suffering really badly, they've lost their livelihoods, we know unemployment is bad for health, so I think this is a reasonable compromise between those two forces."
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Professor Baker said New Zealand is aiming to eliminate Covid-19, which doesn't mean no cases at all, but rather no widespread transmission - he stressed that some outbreaks could still occur.
"It doesn't mean you never get a problem - we know from say eliminating diseases like measles, you occasionally get a case in New Zealand, or even an outbreak - but it's the ability to stamp out those cases and those outbreaks.
"The goal is always the same, and that is no sustained transmission in New Zealand."
New Zealand has taken on a difficult challenge over the past few weeks, and the indications are that it is working.
Professor Baker said other countries could see scenarios where they repeatedly jump in and out of lockdown periods because "the virus is still circulating with a vengeance."
"Whereas when we come out of lockdown, we want to come out to a situation where there's little or no circulating virus - so that's why, for us, we've got to be so cautious about doing this right," Mr Baker said.
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Kiwis need to stick with it over the next few weeks, he said, maintaining physical distancing and hygiene measures.
"It's against our nature, physical distancing - we don't like it - but I think we've got the idea now and I think if we keep the idea in our heads and carry on into Level 3 for a few more weeks, potentially, after this, I think that will be enough to potentially knock out the virus."
Overall, Kiwis have done "exceptionally well", Professor Baker said, to get this far, "and I think the whole country should be very proud of how it's got in behind it's exceptional leadership as well to do this.
"I'm really hopeful and I think there's a reasonable chance of success at the end of all this."
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