CWC Diary Day Two – Must win for the Black Caps
It's finally here. The Black Caps' first game of the Cricket World Cup, against Sri Lanka in Cardiff. A game that, on paper, should be won comfortably by New Zealand. But, more than that, it must be won by New Zealand.
This is a weak Sri Lanka team. One whose bowling stocks are led by Lasith Malinga, a bowler who was good in his prime, but that prime was even before the 2015 World Cup.
Their batting has some weapons, but, again, not enough to make an opposition nervous. And, while the Black Caps' line-up is comfortably stronger, it's a potential banana skin game. Sri Lanka is widely regarded as New Zealand's World Cup bogey team. 10 meetings between them at the pinnacle event, Sri Lanka with six wins, New Zealand four. This though is a different time. A time when New Zealand is now the better cricket side, across the park. They must prove it.
Make no mistake, this, yes the first game of their campaign, is must win for the Black Caps. That's due to the nature of this format. Play everyone once, then straight into semi-finals. So, beating the weaker teams is vital. New Zealand's draw could play into its hands or it could have quite the opposite effect.
Beat Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan and you have momentum, confidence and a lead over the other teams. Lose one and you're facing a brutal task. Six wins will all but get a team to the semi-finals, so losing any one of these first three games may well be the dent New Zealand simply can't afford.
When you look at their draw, it's vitally important they win all three of their first games and win them comfortably. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Afghanistan - three of the weaker teams at this tournament and three teams you need to beat to be in the semi-finals. That's the nature of this cut-throat format.
But there are some big concerns for the Black Caps. The most startling of them all is waking up to read that Tim Southee has suffered a calf injury overnight, while Henry Nicholls is battling an ongoing hamstring complaint. They have ready-made replacements for both - Matt Henry in for Southee and Colin Munro in for Nicholls. But neither scream confidence, do they?
Matt Henry's just coming off the quite impressive triple figures. Well, they'd be impressive if they were produced with the bat.
Unfortunately, Henry's 107 were his runs conceded against the West Indies in the final warm-up match before the tournament. Sri Lanka doesn't have as much firepower as what the West Indies do and, if history is anything to go by, Henry is a strong bowler in UK conditions, but there's absolutely no way his confidence hasn't taken a bit following the onslaught from Shai Hope, Chris Gayle and their friends.
And we all know the deal with Colin Munro. When he's on, he's on. And when he's on, he and Guptill at the top of the order would be amongst the most explosive opening duos at this World Cup. Unfortunately, his on button just doesn't seem to be working at the moment and hasn't for quite some time.
He's scored one half century in his last 17 ODI innings, not great numbers (although I will give him some credit that may put some at ease - that one half century came against Sri Lanka in the recent home summer). The thing with Munro is, he just needs one good knock. He's a confidence player. If he starts to hit a couple out of the middle early, then he'll be in and could set New Zealand the best of platforms. If he doesn't, well, we know all too well what happens then.
So, settle in tonight with your hot water bottle, your drink of choice, and imprint yourself on your couch. Be confident that the Black Caps can not only win this game but go deep into this tournament. But, also, expect there could well be some uncomfortable bumps along the way.
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