The biggest threat to New Zealand in the weeks following Christchurch's terrorist attack is potentially coming from "skinheads", a security expert claims.
Paul Buchanan of 36th Parallel Assessments told TVNZ1's Breakfast today that white supremacism "has emerged and is a very violent threat" to the country.
Mr Buchanan explained that there are "two different concerns" in the wake of the terrorist attack, including "follow-up attacks, copycat attacks by white supremacists", and "retaliatory revenge attacks by Islamicists".
However, he said the threat of a retaliatory attack by Islamic extremists was "relatively low", adding, "I think that the way New Zealand has reacted – not just the Government, but New Zealand in general – has brought us a measure of assurance, because we've shown solidarity with the Muslim community – empathy, compassion – that is noted world-wide."
"So even though there are, perhaps, a couple dozen hotheads in the Muslim community who may want revenge, the community as a whole is very thankful for what New Zealand has done for them in the wake of that attack."
Mr Buchanan said police are likely to "show up at skinheads' houses in the next few days" over fears of further terror or copycat attacks.
"We know that [the gunman] copied a pattern of preparation and what-have-you that has been seen elsewhere, so it could be that they are others. Maybe not necessarily copying him, but who are prone to violence who may be thinking of doing it and that is interesting because Andrew Little, as minister of intelligence and security, has said that he’s just signed off on a raft of security and intelligence warrants.
"I'd have a feeling that there's blue uniforms showing up at skinheads’ houses in the next few days because that is where I think the threat might come from."
He added that before the March 15 shootings too many resources went into "monitoring the Muslim community for potential extremists", while too few went into monitoring white supremacists.
"I do think that there were misplaced resources. Too many went into monitoring the Muslim community for potential extremists, and too little, obviously, in hindsight, went into monitoring white supremacists."
However, Mr Buchanan added that the gunman did not associate with extremist groups - regardless of whether they were being monitored by police.
"Everyone assumes oh, you know, they dropped the ball, no one was looking at the skinheads and the neo-Nazis – well, it could be that they were, but the killer didn't associate [with] the groups that had informants or were infiltrated. This will come out during the [Royal] Commission, but let’s just say I feel fairly confident that they are being watched very closely right now."
"Let's re-orient our priorities to account for the fact that white supremacism has emerged and is a very violent threat that's imminent to us, and if we get the balance right, you and I will have our privacy and the would-be bad guys would not."
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