NIWA forecasts a nearly 90 per cent chance of an El Niño system developing over New Zealand, meaning a hot, dry summer in the east and more rain than normal in the west.
Already, eastern parts of the country like Hawke's Bay and Canterbury could see temperatures rise to 30 degrees this week, with aftermath of an Australian heatwave sending warm air to New Zealand.
1 NEWS meteorologist Dan Corbett put this week's outlook like this: "You drag the air from Australia. That comes down, pushes up over the ranges, you get all the moisture out, dump it down, it warms up and you've got upper twenties around 30 for some of us."
It's too early to tell whether this is the sign of a long, hot summer ahead. But that could be confirmed in the next few weeks, with NIWA forecasting the near 90 per cent chance of El Niño.
That's good news for vineyards, says Jonathan Hamlet of Villa Maria Wines in Hawke's Bay.
"Heading into a warm period is perfect timing for us about to come into flowering. And it's always good news for our fruitfulness and our yield coming in with warm weather at flowering time," he said.
But Hawke's Bay farmer Jim Galloway is already seeing signs things are drying up.
"Some areas, especially on the some parts of the hills that have got less top soil, the grass is starting to dry off. And some of the flat bits that have been damaged a bit in the winter, they're are definitely drying off," he said.
Mr Galloway is hard at work on his farm preparing for what could be a hot summer.
"I've just started cutting the silage to wrap it up for the summer, and maybe for next autumn or winter, depending what happens with the weather."
And Mr Galloway, who's Federated Farmers' Hawke's Bay president, is urging all farmers to make plans now, as summer starts to take shape.
"Make decisions early. Don't hope for rain. Make a decision on what you know today," he said.
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