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Stats alert: Numbers show the Warriors have winning advantage with this bench

August 21, 2018
Jazz TEVAGA Broncos v Vodafone Warriors, NRL Rugby League, Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, Australia. 15 July 2018. Copyright Image: Patrick Hamilton / www.photosport.nz

What Stephen Kearney does with his bench could be crucial for the Warriors' chances in their remaining games this season, with statistics showing they are far more successful when the coach prioritises forward power when picking his substitutes.

In the absence of a genuine utility like Tyrone Peachey and with a hard-working pack regarded by most experts as under-sized, Kearney has chopped and changed his four-man rotation.

Most commonly he has selected three specialist running forwards alongside Jazz Tevaga, who is primarily used at lock though he can also cover hooker.

Early in the season and when Tevaga has been unavailable, specialist hooker Sam Cook or Karl Lawton were named in the No.14 jersey alongside three forwards.

At times, the Warriors have chosen to carry a back - Peta Hiku, Anthony Gelling or Gerard Beale - on the bench in addition to either Tevaga or a specialist dummy-half. Kearney has also on occasions, selected Tevaga alongside a specialist dummy-half.

The Warriors are markedly more successful when three specialist running forwards are selected on the bench, winning nine of 13 games, a winning percentage of 69.

Those 13 games include both the impressive victories over the Dragons, wins in the first three rounds and other triumphs over the Tigers, Eels, Manly and the Cowboys.

They also include both the losses to the Storm and big defeats to the Roosters and Titans.

Conversely, the Warriors have won just four games of nine (44 per cent) when the bench has been stripped of much-needed forward power with an outside back or specialist hooker picked alongside Tevaga.

These include losses to South Sydney, the Sharks and Panthers, when on each occasion the Warriors were out-muscled by the rival pack. Again though, this bench set-up was employed in  impressive wins over the Roosters away and the Broncos.

But in those nine games, the reserve back or specialist hooker (if picked in conjunction with Tevaga) averaged just nine minutes on the field, based on NRL records. 

NRL stats show Kearney uses his bench significantly more overall when it's made up of three specialist running forwards, with the four-man rotation playing an average total of 142 minutes (all statistics based on NRL records).

When the bench contains just two specialist running forwards, that number for the four man rotation drops to 117 minutes.

This season Kearney's bench has been most effective, and the Warriors winning percentage significantly higher, with three running forwards.

- Reporting by Daniel Fraser

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