With the spectre of El Niño looming over New Zealand, our mild winter could soon give way to spring cold snaps, a NIWA meteorologist predicts.
But beachgoers can rejoice – it could then be followed by a drier-than-normal summer.
And while El Niño could cause problems for farmers, NIWA's Ben Noll told TVNZ1's Breakfast, we shouldn't see sustained scorching temperatures like those caused last year by the marine heatwave.
"I don’t think we'll be quite as hot this upcoming summer, but we may have more southwesterly winds, which could bring cooler conditions from time to time," he said.
"Certainly (there will be) your share of heatwaves and warm temperatures, but maybe not as persistent as last year.
"If you’re in Hawke’s Bay or Gisborne and you like hitting the beach – even Auckland, Northland, perhaps in the north and east – that’ll be the place to be for the upcoming couple of months."
It’s still too early to say with certainty if we will experience El Niño – a weather phenomenon caused by warming sea temperatures thousands of kilometres away in the Equatorial Pacific. But if it does arrive, the areas like Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and Canterbury will be at risk of drought.
"If you’re a farmer, it could be an early start to irrigation season in Canterbury," Mr Noll said.
"If you’re in the lambing industry, you may find that these cooling snaps in the spring season could impact you. So those are some of the short-term impacts to think about."
But first, Mr Noll said, we’ll have to deal with the potential of another temperature plunge as winter considers one last hurrah.
"Certainly…it’s been a mild end to the winter," he said.
"But as we go into the end of August, maybe September and October, (look for) cool snaps. Maybe it’s good news, though — the silver lining is maybe (you can) hit the ski field another time or two."
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