According to the NIWA's latest modelling, New Zealand's winter has a good chance of being warmer than average through to July.
There are greater odds of this being true for the northern regions of the North Island, which has a 50 per cent chance of warmer than average weather this winter, compared with 40 per cent for the rest of the country.
However, it isn't all good news, as NIWA predicts there will also be a high chance of cold snaps in June and July.
They also predict that higher temperatures could lead to some significant rainfall events, especially in the north of the North Island, which has a 45 per cent chance of higher than average rainfall in June and July.
NIWA's regional predictions for June and July around NZ are as follows:
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty
• Temperatures are likely to be above average (50% chance).
• Rainfall totals are likely to be above normal. (45% chance).
Central North Island, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu, Wellington
• Temperatures are equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (40% chance).
• Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are equally likely to be in the near normal (40% chance) or above normal range (40% chance).
Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa
• Temperatures are equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (40% chance).
• Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all about equally likely to be in the near normal (40% chance) or above normal range (40-45% chance).
Tasman, Nelson, Marlborough, Buller
• Temperatures are equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (40% chance).
• Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all about equally likely to be in the near normal (40% chance) or above normal range (40-45% chance).
West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland
• Temperatures are equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (40% chance).
• Rainfall totals are about equally likely to be near normal (40% chance) or below normal (45% chance).
Coastal Canterbury, east Otago
• Temperatures are equally likely to be near average (40% chance) or above average (40% chance).
• Rainfall totals are equally likely to be normal (40% chance) or above normal (40% chance).
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