North Korea on Saturday (local time) reported no new fever cases for the first time since it abruptly admitted to its first domestic Covid-19 outbreak in May.
There have been widespread outside doubts about the accuracy of North Korean statistics as its reported fatalities are too low and its daily fever cases have been plummeting too fast recently. Some experts say North Korea has likely manipulated the scale of illness and deaths to help leader Kim Jong Un maintain absolute control amid mounting economic difficulties.
The North’s anti-epidemic centre said via state media it had found zero fever patients in the latest 24-hour period, maintaining the country’s total caseload of about 4.8 million. Its death count remains at 74 in a population of 26 million, equating to a mortality rate of 0.0016%, the world’s lowest if true.
Despite the claimed zero cases, it is unclear whether and how soon North Korea would formally declare victory over Covid and lift pandemic-related curbs because experts say it could face a viral resurgence later this year like many other countries. North Korea’s state media has recently said it’s intensifying and upgrading its anti-epidemic systems to guard against coronavirus subvariants and other diseases like monkeypox that are occurring in other countries.
“The organizational power and unity unique to the society of (North Korea) is fully displayed in the struggle to bring forward a victory in the emergency anti-epidemic campaign,” the official Korean Central News Agency said Saturday.
North Korea’s claimed zero cases could have symbolic significance in its efforts to establish Kim’s image as a leader who has suppressed the outbreak much faster than other countries. Kim would need such credentials to garner greater public support to surmount economic hardships caused by pandemic-related border closings, UN sanctions and his mismanagement, observers say.
“In North Korea, public healthcare and politics can’t be separated from each other, and that aspect has been revealed again in its Covid outbreak,” said Ahn Kyung-su, head of DPRKHEALTH.ORG, a website focusing on health issues in North Korea. “Since they began with manipulated data, they’re now putting an end to the outbreak with manipulated data.”
North Korea had been widely expected to claim zero cases as its daily fever caseload has been nosediving in recent days — there were three reported cases on Friday and 11 on Thursday — from a peak of about 400,000 a day in May. The country, which lacks test kits, has identified only a fraction of its 4.8 million fever patients as confirmed Covid cases.
“Realistically speaking, hundreds of thousands of daily fever cases becoming zero in less than three months is something impossible,” said Lee Yo Han, a professor at Ajou University Graduate School of Public Health in South Korea.
Many outside experts earlier worried the North’s outbreak would have devastating consequences because most of its people are believed to be unvaccinated and about 40% are reportedly undernourished.
The only route for North Korea’s fresh viral spread from abroad is likely China, its main ally which shares a long, porous border with the country.
Foreign experts struggle to assess the true number of fatalities in North Korea. They note the North’s shortage of test kits would also make it virtually impossible for the country to determine whether aged people or others with underlying diseases died of Covid or something else.
Seoul’s Hanyang University published a study earlier in the year predicting North Korea would likely suffer 100,000-150,000 deaths.